mayor’s race. new york city

The Coming Battle

Anthony Weiner is not quite movie star handsome, but he’s close… and his chiseled jaw line and sharp tongue have become familiar to politically oriented TV viewers across the nation.

The focus of his ambition seems, however, to remain local (if New York City can really be thought of as a ”locality”). He’s hinted he wants to Mayor and the pundits and reporters who cover him believe him.

He also has a certain amount of momentum. He gained name recognition during the 2009 campaign season in part because he seemed to be the only guy the Bloomberg machine really feared. (A Bloomberg operative told me that the campaign actually altered the timing of the Brooklyn canvassing schedule to saturate the neighborhood where Weiner’s mother lives to send a message to Weiner early in the spring).

Because of the anomaly of Bloomberg’s term-limits fake out, the election authorities allowed Weiner to keep the five million he raised for that 2009 race, which is the maximum; so now Anthony, or Tony Hot Dog-as a certain former staffer likes to call him-can sit back and weigh his options.

But, the fact remains you don’t become the top guy in New York City without a fight, and 2013 is setting up to be a no-holds-barred scrum. Three years out and likely contenders Christine Quinn, Bill DeBlasio, and Scott Stringer are already mixing it up, in a kerfuffle about the mysterious finances of the City Council.

It’s early days yet, but a Marist poll taken on April 13th shows that no one is really ahead of the pack, although Weiner enjoys a very slight lead in the Democratic primary against others known to be considering a run.

Here’s the current break down of registered Democrats:

Congressman Anthony Weiner -18%

Former Comptroller/losing candidate Bill Thompson-15%

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn -12%

Public Advocate Bill de Blasio -10%

Bronx Borough President Ruben Diaz Jr. -10%

Comptroller John Liu-9%

And there are others who may be biding their time until the actual campaign season begins. Former Bronx Borough president Adolfo Carrión has just been tapped by Obama to lead the New York and New Jersey Office of Housing and Urban Development and he apparently has a war chest of $3 million and is said to be considering a bid for either Comptroller or Mayor.

Also there is the formidable presence of Mayor Bloomberg. He trashed term limits to try to solidify his legacy as Mayor and will be sure to want to influence the outcome of the next election, especially to preserve the changes he has made to the school system. He may try to put forward one of his friends in the business community to carry on with the Mayor’s program.

He’s said to be thinking of Dick Parsons former head of Time Warner, who is currently trying to rescue Citi Group from the repercussions of it’s recent excesses with collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps.  He is probably the most powerful African-American Business leader in the country.

Harold Ford, who seems to be interested in setting up shop in New York any-way-he-can might, despite his recent embarrassing performance, try for a big apple play.

So when Anthony Weiner does what everyone expects him to do and follows his dream of becoming Mayor, he will be jumping from a relatively comfortable seat into a mosh-pit full of sharp elbows.